Expert forecasters say there is over a 90% chance Biden will be the Democrat nominee, while betting markets imply there is just a 75% chance
Can forecasting help organisations think?
* Median scenario has Israel–Hezbollah fatalities between 500–1,000 in 5 months' time * The US has conducted lethal airstrikes on Iranian forces * 3.3% chance of a major escalation (100+ US–Iran deaths) in the next 5 months * Updates to all of our previous forecasts on the Israel–
Israel-Hamas forecasting part 2
Israel-Hamas forecasting part 1: of all the wars in the last 75 years of Arab-Israeli conflict, this one is probably going to be the deadliest.
A couple of hours after midnight on September 24th, three police vehicles arrived to investigate a couple of trucks without license plates blocking the bridge to the village of Banjska, North Kosovo. What transpired over the next 15 hours is in dispute, but by 17:27 one Kosovar police officer
El Niño is here. A climate pattern that cyclically but unpredictably develops in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, El Niño brings with it far-reaching extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and thunderstorms. It is defined as the unusual warming of surface waters, often during
The outlook on protests and political instability in Israel
In late June, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, mutinied against the Russian military. Wagner forces captured the city of Rostov-on-Don and began rapidly advancing towards Moscow before turning back after negotiations. Our forecasting group undertook an effort to make live probabilistic predictions about
Russian officials have accused Wagner Group of staging a mutiny, with some calling it an attempted coup. What happens next? Monday 26 June 0700 UTC With the situation somewhat stabilised, we'll return to our regular update schedule. Thank you to everyone who joined us over the weekend 20: