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Swift Centre

Will the US economy enter stagflation?

Will the US economy enter stagflation?

Does stagflation loom? Larry Summers, the former United States Secretary of the Treasury, warned in April that his country has “got a bit of a stagflation problem brewing”. Stagflation is the dreaded combination of slow, or negative, economic growth (stagnation); rising prices (inflation); and rising unemployment. It is dreaded not

Electoral interfence, inflation and military coups: forecasting the Turkish presidential election and its consequences

Electoral interfence, inflation and military coups: forecasting the Turkish presidential election and its consequences

Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections, set to take place on Sunday, could be the most consequential of the year. The nation's democracy is deeply flawed, with concerns that it may slide into a full-blown dictatorship. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has grown more autocratic during his time in power

Donald Trump’s renomination chances

Last week, Swift forecasters got together to discuss Donald Trump's chances of securing the Republican nomination, and how the legal cases against him might change their outlook. We're sharing our forecasters' views here. All quotes come from them, and more of their reasoning can be found when you hover over

Forecasting Britain’s life expectancy

Weight-loss drugs forecasted to be best solution to Britain’s stagnant life expectancy

Avian flu outbreak risks in 2023

Fears of a bird flu pandemic have been growing. Some influenza viruses are endemic in humans, but while those strains of the virus come and go, causing significant waves of illness and death in flu seasons, they don’t break out and become full-blown pandemics. The risk of a new

The consequences of Russia using a nuclear weapon

Would a NATO country enter Ukrainian airspace? Attack Russia’s Black Sea fleet? Respond with nuclear strikes of its own?

Under what circumstances would Russia use a nuclear weapon?

If Ukraine takes control of Crimea? If the US supplies long-range missiles? If the Russians are driven from Ukraine entirely? Ukrainian forces have recently retaken much of the ground that was captured by Russia in the first months of this year, and the Russian government and military response has looked

Biden's re-election chances

What are the factors that determine Biden’s chances in the 2024 presidential election? Key forecasts * Probability Joe Biden will be elected president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election: 34% * Biden’s chances if Pete Buttigieg announces his candidacy for the Democratic nomination drop to 12%

Monkeypox outlook — update

* Median scenario: Monkeypox cases in the USA and UK to grow into 2023, but likely to remain mostly confined to the MSM community * Globally, low vaccine availability and poor reporting will contribute to increased spread. * Key risks: mutation leading to transmission beyond sexual networks At the end of June the

Consequences of Russia cutting off the gas this winter

* Even if the gas stays on, Germany should expect a harsh winter, and a worse one if it doesn’t * Short term gas shutdowns will likely lead to recession, increased risk of domestic power cuts and the possibility of escalation around Kaliningrad On 11 July, the main pipeline carrying Russian