Would a NATO country enter Ukrainian airspace? Attack Russia’s Black Sea fleet? Respond with nuclear strikes of its own?
If Ukraine takes control of Crimea? If the US supplies long-range missiles? If the Russians are driven from Ukraine entirely? Ukrainian forces have recently retaken much of the ground that was captured by Russia in the first months of this year, and the Russian government and military response has looked
What are the factors that determine Biden’s chances in the 2024 presidential election? Key forecasts * Probability Joe Biden will be elected president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election: 34% * Biden’s chances if Pete Buttigieg announces his candidacy for the Democratic nomination drop to 12%
* Median scenario: Monkeypox cases in the USA and UK to grow into 2023, but likely to remain mostly confined to the MSM community * Globally, low vaccine availability and poor reporting will contribute to increased spread. * Key risks: mutation leading to transmission beyond sexual networks At the end of June the
* Even if the gas stays on, Germany should expect a harsh winter, and a worse one if it doesn’t * Short term gas shutdowns will likely lead to recession, increased risk of domestic power cuts and the possibility of escalation around Kaliningrad On 11 July, the main pipeline carrying Russian
Key forecasts: * Risk of use of chemical or biological weapons in the next 12 months: 12% * Likelihood of ceasefire by end of year: 21% * Risk of event involving 25 fatalities inside NATO member territory in the next 18 months: 8% Summary: The most likely outcome is that the war does
The last thing the world wanted to hear, as it started to put the two years of the pandemic behind it, was that a new infectious disease was spreading unexpectedly. That is, however, what happened, when towards the end of April 2022 cases of the viral disease monkeypox were detected
Our forecasts have recently been featured in: Wired: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts The Week: "the world renowned Swift Centre..." The i paper: Will Putin use nuclear weapons? Superforecasters say risk of a Russia nuclear attack is small but very real Unherd: Will Russia push the nuclear button?