Expert forecasters say there is over a 90% chance Biden will be the Democrat nominee, while betting markets imply there is just a 75% chance
Can forecasting help organisations think?
* Median scenario has Israel–Hezbollah fatalities between 500–1,000 in 5 months' time * The US has conducted lethal airstrikes on Iranian forces * 3.3% chance of a major escalation (100+ US–Iran deaths) in the next 5 months * Updates to all of our previous forecasts on the Israel–
Israel-Hamas forecasting part 2
Israel-Hamas forecasting part 1: of all the wars in the last 75 years of Arab-Israeli conflict, this one is probably going to be the deadliest.
A couple of hours after midnight on September 24th, three police vehicles arrived to investigate a couple of trucks without license plates blocking the bridge to the village of Banjska, North Kosovo. What transpired over the next 15 hours is in dispute, but by 17:27 one Kosovar police officer
El Niño is here. A climate pattern that cyclically but unpredictably develops in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, El Niño brings with it far-reaching extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and thunderstorms. It is defined as the unusual warming of surface waters, often during
The outlook on protests and political instability in Israel
In late June, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, mutinied against the Russian military. Wagner forces captured the city of Rostov-on-Don and began rapidly advancing towards Moscow before turning back after negotiations. Our forecasting group undertook an effort to make live probabilistic predictions about
Russian officials have accused Wagner Group of staging a mutiny, with some calling it an attempted coup. What happens next? Monday 26 June 0700 UTC With the situation somewhat stabilised, we'll return to our regular update schedule. Thank you to everyone who joined us over the weekend 20:
And what increases its chances?
Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections, set to take place on Sunday, could be the most consequential of the year. The nation's democracy is deeply flawed, with concerns that it may slide into a full-blown dictatorship. Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has grown more autocratic during
Last week, Swift forecasters got together to discuss Donald Trump's chances of securing the Republican nomination, and how the legal cases against him might change their outlook. We're sharing our forecasters' views here. All quotes come from them, and more of their reasoning can be
Weight-loss drugs forecasted to be best solution to Britain’s stagnant life expectancy
Fears of a bird flu pandemic have been growing. Some influenza viruses are endemic in humans, but while those strains of the virus come and go, causing significant waves of illness and death in flu seasons, they don’t break out and become full-blown pandemics. The risk of a new
Would a NATO country enter Ukrainian airspace? Attack Russia’s Black Sea fleet? Respond with nuclear strikes of its own?
If Ukraine takes control of Crimea? If the US supplies long-range missiles? If the Russians are driven from Ukraine entirely? Ukrainian forces have recently retaken much of the ground that was captured by Russia in the first months of this year, and the Russian government and military response has looked
What are the factors that determine Biden’s chances in the 2024 presidential election? Key forecasts * Probability Joe Biden will be elected president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential election: 34% * Biden’s chances if Pete Buttigieg announces his candidacy for the Democratic nomination drop to 12%
* Median scenario: Monkeypox cases in the USA and UK to grow into 2023, but likely to remain mostly confined to the MSM community * Globally, low vaccine availability and poor reporting will contribute to increased spread. * Key risks: mutation leading to transmission beyond sexual networks At the end of June the
* Even if the gas stays on, Germany should expect a harsh winter, and a worse one if it doesn’t * Short term gas shutdowns will likely lead to recession, increased risk of domestic power cuts and the possibility of escalation around Kaliningrad On 11 July, the main pipeline carrying Russian
Key forecasts: * Risk of use of chemical or biological weapons in the next 12 months: 12% * Likelihood of ceasefire by end of year: 21% * Risk of event involving 25 fatalities inside NATO member territory in the next 18 months: 8% Summary: The most likely outcome is that the war does
The last thing the world wanted to hear, as it started to put the two years of the pandemic behind it, was that a new infectious disease was spreading unexpectedly. That is, however, what happened, when towards the end of April 2022 cases of the viral disease monkeypox were detected
Our forecasts have recently been featured in: The Times: A girl died after catching bird flu: how worried should we be? Wired: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts The Week: "the world renowned Swift Centre..." The i paper: Will Putin use nuclear weapons? Superforecasters say risk of