The Swift Centre was founded by former managing director and superforecaster at the Good Judgment Project, Michael Story, to explore the application of forecasting research for real-world problems.
The Swift forecasting team is built from a global network of impartial and highly-calibrated individuals who work together to provide valuable insights and predictions that can inform strategic decision-making in a variety of industries and sectors.
They work collaboratively to gather and analyse data resulting in informed predictions about future trends and events in geopolitics, science, economics and government.
You tell us, we tell you
A collaborative approach to forecasting yields the best results. Finding the right questions to ask is as vital as accuracy when producing useful predictions for organisations. Each client is different in their goals and challenges. What we provide is an “outside view”- a macro perspective from well-calibrated forecasters, or narrowing down a broad range of ideas and crystallising what is most important.
We are also not purely focusing on the likelihood of an event occurring, but also the causes and potential consequences of that outcome. You can see examples of these conditionals in some of our publicly available reports. Including these conditionals in the forecasting process creates a much fuller picture of possibilities and likelihoods which your organisation can use to make more confident decisions.
For our forecasts to be truly effective in your decision making process, we will be available to help talk through the results you get and what to infer from them. It’s not just numbers! We provide insights into our forecasters' rationales. When forecasters, for example, give a 58% probability on a particular event it can be difficult to grasp what that truly means. We will talk you through it and discuss what the outcomes mean for you.
What works for you
There are a number of ways we can help any business or organisation. We are open to a whole host of collaborations and we can tailor a process suited to you. Examples of what we offer:
- One-off workshops to introduce a team to thinking like a forecaster
- Collaborative workshops where Swift analysts and clients work together to make estimates
- Written reports, monitoring and analysis by top forecasters
- Ongoing collaboration to support business and institutional forecasting
Contact us to start a conversation about how we can collaborate with your organisation for better decision making around the future that matters.