Swift Centre's forecasters include top performing superforecasters from the US Government IARPA Good Judgment Project, elite performers from Metaculus, and Foretell. Their track records have been proven across thousands of quantifiable questions. They are located throughout the globe, and have worked in high levels of government, investment, and industry. They are driven by a passion for their forecasts and analysis to reflect not only the current highest levels of accuracy attainable, but for their work to have an impact.
Anonymous, and accountable
We follow Chatham House rules where the information from discussions is free to be used but “neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any participant, may be revealed.” This is crucial for maintaining an environment where all may think and speak freely. This is necessary to break groupthink and encourage spotting the black swans that give policy makers and analysts a competitive edge. Swift Centre is transparent in the write ups that give the “Why” behind the forecasts. If our forecasters don’t come to an internal consensus, diverging views are noted and the range of forecast probabilities publicly presented to help policy makers and ordinary people understand the complexity of an issue and look for the potential inflection points.
The Swift Centre is hiring experienced forecasters. If you're a Good Judgment Project superforecaster, a top predictor on Metaculus, a Foretell power user, a Predictit profiteer or have a good forecast track record on any of the other big sites then we'd love to hear from you.
Our goal is to help decision makers understand the "why" of forecasters judgments so they can make better informed decisions. If you'd like to join, please expect to share more about your thoughts alongside your probability estimates.
This is a funded project so we can pay forecasters competitively for their time
Michael Story, Director, The Swift Centre