Applied forecasting in the public interest
Swift Centre Research helps to make visible the impacts of different paths, to make the best decisions for our future.
Who controls frontier compute?
Will the rules keep pace?
Where does power concentrate?
We forecast what others only debate.
Where we focus
We can forecast across trade, macro and geopolitics - and we do. But our research effort is concentrated where the stakes are moving fastest: the concentration of power in AI, and the great power dynamics around it.
Scenario-based deep dives into how the world may evolve - AI capability, compute and control, and the great power competition running through them.
Living analysis on AI and geopolitical risk, combining horizon scanning, scenario analysis, causal modelling and forecasting - updated as the situation moves, rather than frozen at publication.
The forecasting behind it
Our panel is drawn from the top 1% of forecasters worldwide - people with a measured, public record of accuracy, not credentials alone. Estimates come with probabilities attached, which means they can be checked afterwards. Most analysis cannot be.
We publish our reasoning and our results in the open. Recent write-ups include our forecasts run head-to-head against Polymarket, and analysis of AI policy, the Strait of Hormuz and China–Taiwan risk - read the published analysis.
The research wing
Our not-for-profit wing applies calibrated, structured forecasting to the concentration of power in AI (compute, capability and control) and to the policy that will govern it. Independent, rigorous, and built for the public interest.
Trusted by leading labs, governments, funders & media
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