Israel–Hamas war forecasting: Israel's simmering conflict with Hezbollah could easily intensify
* Median scenario has Israel–Hezbollah fatalities between 500–1,000 in 5 months' time
* The US has conducted lethal airstrikes on Iranian forces
* 3.3% chance of a major escalation (100+ US–Iran deaths) in the next 5 months
* Updates to all of our previous forecasts on the Israel–Hamas
