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Israel–Hamas war forecasting: Israel's simmering conflict with Hezbollah could easily intensify

Israel–Hamas war forecasting: Israel's simmering conflict with Hezbollah could easily intensify

* Median scenario has Israel–Hezbollah fatalities between 500–1,000 in 5 months' time * The US has conducted lethal airstrikes on Iranian forces * 3.3% chance of a major escalation (100+ US–Iran deaths) in the next 5 months * Updates to all of our previous forecasts on the Israel–Hamas
By Swift Centre Nov 15, 2023
How the Gaza war may escalate internationally

How the Gaza war may escalate internationally

By Swift Centre Oct 16, 2023
Israel’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts

Israel’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts

By Swift Centre Oct 13, 2023
Is Serbia about to invade Kosovo?

Is Serbia about to invade Kosovo?

By Swift Centre Oct 4, 2023
El Niño: how severe will the floods, fires, and famines be?

El Niño: how severe will the floods, fires, and famines be?

By Swift Centre Oct 2, 2023
An illustration of a gavel overshadowing Israeli buildings drawn as chess pieces on a chess board

Will Israel's judicial reforms be rejected?

By Swift Centre Sep 8, 2023
The outlook after the mutiny

The outlook after the mutiny

By Swift Centre Jul 31, 2023
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News

Swift Centre forecasts in the news:

Our forecasts have recently been featured in: The Times: A girl died after catching bird flu: how worried should we be? Wired: Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts The Week: "the world renowned Swift Centre..." The i paper: Will Putin use nuclear weapons? Superforecasters say risk of a Russia
By Swift Centre May 18, 2022
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