Who we are.
The Swift Centre was founded by former managing director and superforecaster at the Good Judgment Project, Michael Story, to explore the application of forecasting research for real-world problems.
The Swift forecasting team is built from a global network of impartial and highly-calibrated individuals who work together to provide valuable insights and predictions that can inform strategic decision-making in a variety of industries and sectors.
They work collaboratively to gather and analyse data resulting in informed predictions about future trends and events in geopolitics, science, economics and government.
Our forecasters.
The best of the best
Swift Centre's forecasters include top performing superforecasters from the US Government IARPA Good Judgment Project, elite performers from Metaculus, and Foretell. Their track records have been proven across thousands of quantifiable questions. They are located throughout the globe, and have worked in high levels of government, investment, and industry. They are driven by a passion for their forecasts and analysis to reflect not only the current highest levels of accuracy attainable, but for their work to have an impact.
Anonymous, and accountable
We follow Chatham House rules where the information from discussions is free to be used but “neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any participant, may be revealed.” This is crucial for maintaining an environment where all may think and speak freely. This is necessary to break groupthink and encourage spotting the black swans that give policy makers and analysts a competitive edge. Swift Centre is transparent in the write ups that give the “Why” behind the forecasts. If our forecasters don’t come to an internal consensus, diverging views are noted and the range of forecast probabilities publicly presented to help policy makers and ordinary people understand the complexity of an issue and look for the potential inflection points.