Mission
Our mission: “We turn uncertainty into foresight, enabling confident, well-informed decisions.”
Our vision: “To be the trusted source of clarity in an uncertain world - helping decision-makers manage risks and seize opportunities before they happen.”
Methodology
Forecasting is rooted in decades of rigorous scientific research through structured tournaments, psychological studies, and statistical methodologies. One landmark project, the Good Judgment Project led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, demonstrated that certain individuals (“superforecasters”) consistently outperformed others through a combination of cognitive ability, probabilistic reasoning, open-minded thinking, and systematic training.
The Swift Centre was founded by former managing director and superforecaster at the Good Judgment Project, Michael Story, to leverage the application of forecasting research for real-world problems.
The Swift forecasting team is built from a global network of impartial and highly-calibrated individuals who work together to provide valuable insights and predictions that can inform strategic decision-making in a variety of industries and sectors.
Meet the Team…
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With a background as a Managing Director at Good Judgment Inc. and a qualifying “super-forecaster” in the original Good Judgment Project, Michael founded the Swift Centre to bridge forecasting research and real-world decision-making. Prior to the Swift Centre, Michael applied rigorous forecasting, psychometrics and risk-quantification techniques in hedge fund and consulting environments, with a persistent focus on calibration and performance under uncertainty.
He believes that effective forecasting is not just about assigning probabilities, but about delivering the why (the models, assumptions and mechanisms behind an outcome)so that decision-makers can act with clarity. His core conviction is that forecasts become most powerful when they inform how to respond, not just what might happen
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James has a background in UK public policy and international finance, including roles at HM Treasury, he brings experience working on complex global issues across development, economics and strategic planning. James has worked across government, consultancy and futures-focused initiatives, applying structured forecasting, Delphi methods and scenario design to help institutions stress-test assumptions and plan for uncertainty.
At the Swift Centre, he leads engagement with partners and clients, designs applied forecasting programmes and facilitates strategic foresight processes to support resilient long-term decision-making. His focus is on building communities and systems that can anticipate change early, interpret it clearly and act confidently
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Eleanor oversees the Swift Centre’s operational frameworks, ensuring that forecasting methodologies, background operations, and publication workflows run smoothly and accurately. Her leadership brings together project management, forecaster coordination, and administrative efficiency, so that the Swift Centre delivers research and insights to its decision-maker partners via a smooth easy process and with consistency.
Eleanor believes that delivering an effective service for clients requires operational rigour and transparent workflows. Her work ties the analytical ambitions of the Swift Centre to real-world execution and impact
Our forecasters include…
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Former National Security Special Advisor to the Vice President of the United States, and Former Senior US Diplomat to China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan
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Lead financial institutions and policy analyst at the US Federal Reserve Board
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Former Nuclear Submarine commander for the US Navy
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Former Special Advisor to No.10
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Senior Scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison, Emeritus (biochemistry, virology, immunology)
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PhD European Lawyer, Top 11 (out of over 4000 forecasters) three years in a row on forecasting platform Metaculus
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Former UN peacekeeper and field commander in Africa
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Doctor in Neuroscience, Former US Affiliate Scientist on influenza at the Los Alamos National Laboratory
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PhD in Philology and Linguistics with a focus on reducing cultural bias and ignorance in forecasting, Policy Analyst at RAND
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AI Policy Researcher with a Master's degree in Computational and Applied Mathematics
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Start up founder with a Masters in Mathematics
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Former AI & Digital Transformation Lead at Transport Canada, and Global Risk & Scenario Forecaster at the Forecasting Research Institute