Escalation Between Iran and Israel: Forecasts Amid Rapid Developments

Over the past 24 hours, a serious escalation has unfolded between Iran and Israel, drawing global attention and fueling widespread uncertainty about what may come next. 

As the situation continues to evolve, businesses, policymakers, journalists, and the public alike are seeking timely, evidence-based insights to help interpret unfolding events and anticipate future developments.

In response, we have rapidly convened a team of the Swift Centre’s forecasters to assess some near-term reactions following the initial strikes that have been witnessed. 

This flash forecast is aimed to provide insights on the likely trajectory of a highly complex and uncertain conflict. These forecasts provide a prediction based on the situation on 13th June 2025 at 20:30 BST. While these forecasts have been developed under time pressure, they are grounded in the same disciplined methodology and analytical depth that underpin all of our forecasting work.